Newsletter summary
May 9thMiniarcademachineThe main contract of domestic cotton futures fell by 1.Miniarcademachine.69% adjust the limit of cotton contract price by ICE. Australia's cotton exports fell 38% in MarchMiniarcademachine.5%, the domestic lint sales rate dropped by 12.2% compared with the same period last year. Institutions forecast differences in the future market, Sino-Thai futures are optimistic about the rebound, Cofco futures are bearish.
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The price in the domestic cotton futures market fluctuated and reached a high of 15695.00 yuan. On May 9, the main contract of cotton futures in the domestic market was promoted in the shock. The cotton futures market opened at 15660.00 yuan / ton, and hit a high of 15695.00 yuan in late trading. At one point in intraday trading, it fell to 15385.00 yuan, a decline of about 1.69%. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced that it will adjust the daily limit of the No. 2 cotton contract by 400 points, or about 4 cents per pound, from the opening on Thursday, May 9. Australia's cotton export data continued the downward trend in March, with monthly exports of 39000 tons, down 8.6% from the previous month and a sharp drop of 38.5% from the same period last year. According to the national cotton market monitoring system, as of April 25, the domestic lint sales rate fell 12.2% from the same period last year to 67.5%. Although the progress of market sales has accelerated, it still lags behind the average of 5.6% over the past four years. Market institutions have different views on cotton futures. The analysis of Sino-Thai futures points out that the current cotton price is close to the cost line, and the supporting role is gradually emerging.MiniarcademachineThe supply and demand side shows that the price difference between internal and external cotton has led to a significant rebound in import profits and increased import expectations. China's Ministry of Agriculture and villages raised its cotton import estimate for 2023Universe 24 to 2.3 million tons, an increase from the March estimate of 2 million tons. In March, China's cotton imports reached 400000 tons, an increase of 450.6 percent over the same period last year, and cotton yarn imports also increased by 35.2 percent over the same period last year. Although the domestic cotton supply is abundant, the fall in cotton prices has prompted enterprises to step up efforts to replenish stocks, and commercial inventories are being quickly digested. Technically, short-term support rebound, you can try the long operation, but you need to carefully set stop loss. Sino-Thai futures believe that with the arrival of the destocking stage, domestic cotton prices will fluctuate with foreign cotton prices, while the role of cost support will gradually appear. In contrast, Cofco futures are cautious, believing that domestic and foreign markets lack upward momentum, that the previous high of 16500 yuan / ton may become the annual peak, the future market may enter a bear market cycle, and the new low may hit 14000 yuan / ton. Cofco futures advise investors to cherish every opportunity to rebound and sell short at the right time.
